I think most of that happened well before 2021. And he may well have believed they were not going to invade — I totally believed that, because the alternative was just too depressing. Most of my friends, relatives and acquaintances (Russian-speaking, but not in Russia) were of a similar opinion.
He doesn't claim anything, he just didn't believe it at that point. He literally says "If there's an invasion tomorrow, dunk on me because I have been spectacularly wrong."
