> If the model is missing positive forcings, what makes you so sure that they have included all the negative forcings?

I don't think they have included all the negative forcings, but I think that's irrelevant because the observed evidence is that the unincluded positive forcings are significantly larger than the unincluded negative forcings.

All that matters is the net balance, and the fact that the climate is systematically exceeding the most wildly pessimistic predictions our model provides, shows that the model is not neutrally-calibrated with the present assumptions. There is a significant positive net balance (including any negative forcing) that our model is understating.

At any given time that could be a lot or a little, but, right now it seems to be "a lot". And the fact that it's been that way for 30 years, says that this isn't a short-term thing. And in fact the rate of departure from the model is accelerating too - the second derivative and third derivates seem to be strongly positive. We are not just getting farther away from the model, we are getting farther away faster and accelerating as we do it.

Could that all change tomorrow when some other effect kicks in and plunges us into a nuclear winter or whatever? No, probably not, but that's the kind of hope that conservative media has been selling people for 40 years.

When scientists give a neutral "well, anything could happen but..." response, all the public hears is "you're saying there's a chance". Nope, we're blasting through all the guardrails of the model on a yearly basis, we're pretty fucked.

And yes, there's also the possibility that we've unintentionally been geoengineering something for a while and when we stop ships from putting out sulfur (because it causes acid rain) that we suddenly jump even higher.

Getting to the "disease, famine, endless wildfires (way too many to keep under control), storms with the power to level cities and blot out the sun" portion of the Toby Ruins It For Everyone video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uc1vrO6iL0U

And yes, it is absolutely too late to stop and the best we can do is try to limit the impacts... which will continue to worsen until we do (and then for about another 20 years after we cease net emissions). Which is why the conservative media will jump right from "it's not real/it's not human caused/it's not bad enough to do anything about it" right to "wow it's too late, let's do nothing". Which is the same thing they've wanted us to do all along, ofc...