Edit:
mailto:hn@ycombinator.com
Is the link at the bottom.
For context, I’m not at all denying the invasion or how awful it is. I’m only saying there is extreme hyperbole at times in the same way there is about controversial political figures in the US
I could not care less what software engineers have to say on the matter.
Agree we shouldn't lose focus but this seems rare and important enough to be worth discussing.
From the guidelines of what is off-topic "Most stories about politics, or crime, or sports, or celebrities, unless they're evidence of some interesting new phenomenon."
I am seeing a lot of conjecture and not a lot of substance. Is this whole thing based on a couple telegram videos? Is there anything to suggest they aren’t just propaganda deepfakes?
The fog of war over Ukraine does continue to frustrate. You really wish there was live, perfect info sources to keep you in the know, but even ten years from now there are sure to be questions.
Edit: just got through the most recent episode and want to warn that it’s a bit crazy conspiratorial, but interesting…
[1] MOD https://t.me/mod_russia https://t.me/mod_russia_en
[2] Wagner https://t.me/orchestra_w
[3] Director of the Information and Press Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs https://t.me/MariaVladimirovnaZakharova
Here’s a pretty good source of almost realtime updates, one of the large pro-war Tg channels. If you are on paid Telegram membership, I think it allows to translate all content.
Not a fan of such media, but I’m from Rostov area so had to subscribe today to stay tuned.
Everything else is filled with deepfakes, old footage and co
But Wagner forces are around 25 000. It is not clear how loyal the bulk of them are towards Prigoshin personally (I have my doubts) but many russian russians share the hate for the MoD.
And there is solid evidence, that they control some area.
It is doable. With that strategy, I get more cautious news, not the hottest of the hot stuff, but I am pretty sure thing is happening now.
Putin doesn't care about diplomatic relations and almost every reputable media has fled the country.
Incredible.
For now it is "only" an armed rebellion, I guess. And depending on how it unfolds it could be a lot of things.
I think that this sort of thing is not very frequent in contemporary, or even modern, history, but it is very reminiscent of Roman history.
Putin calling him a traitor is a death sentence. If he didn't already plan to, now his only option seems to be to move against Putin.
In don't see how they can both stay in power for much longer. One of them has to go.
Internal power struggles are a sign of weakness. Putin does not like to appear weak.
Now while it certainly has staged elements, the power struggle between Wagner and the regular army is very real.
But the outcome hopefully will actually lead to ending the war (blaming it on the Wagner traitors). Or worst case, all out nuclear war.
Nonetheless, if Russia ceases their aggression after this then it wouldn't have been defeated by Ukraine. You'd basically end up with non-patriots having caused the loss, as such you'll have a group of people to blame.
[0] https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fjBVFL0k_-0 [1] https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/16725113220832706...
It is kind of elementary school level of logic if you ask me, but it is the logic/argument Prigozhin is using.
I am definitely not blaming anyone for calling it "possible coup" or "coup" or even "an attempt to start civil war". The original intent was to explain that coup in quotation marks is also alright term to use.
Edit: every single time I write "wagner are technically illegal in Russia" I get downvoted in HN. It is pattern at this point. So, guys, if that was reason for downvote, yep they are illegal per Russian law.
His videos are consistently insisting he is just defending and not hostile to Russia. Which is of course how he should position himself.
But Putin essentially gave him the death sentence so one or the other has to go.
This feels more like a civil war. It might not last long of course. We’ll see.
(Wagner is not a person. Or am I misreading: who does "himself" refer to?)
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group
My uninformed read is that what he's enraged about (a Russian strike on a Wagner encampment) actually took place, and he knows he's now a dead man walking anyway, so he's going to see what he can do with the time he has left.
"Putin made the wrong choice, all the worse for him. Soon we will have a new president."
https://twitter.com/ChengWeiLai2/status/1672527502223511559#...
But let's be clear, the crowd breaking into the Capitol wasn't the entirety of the coup attempt, and even to write that part down as just a disorganised mob is incorrect.
What was going on is better understood as an autogolpe -- a self-coup. It had several prongs -- violent, parliamentary (in the congressional sense of the word) and judicial. So, fake electors, lawsuits, attempt to persuade Pence not to count, interfering with results in several states, and the physical insurrection.
The aim was to create a scenario where the handover just didn't happen, through all these interlocking parts.
But the crowd could only ever have created the circumstances that delayed certification (and might have pulled that off, had Pence got in the car).
It was much more co-ordinated than we have yet seen documented in courts, but that time is coming.
But he's a madman whose organisation has committed atrocities in several countries; if he is Russia's hope for an end to Putin, that is not a good scenario.
I am sure this coup, however it will ends, is a major source of distraction from the war. Meanwhile, Ukraine is pushing east: will they be able to use this coup to liberate some territories?
If they don't then it's all over for Putin.
Shouldn't that give us the best possible predictions? Everybody with expertise or inside knowledge who sees the probabilities are off would rush in, place bets and "correct" the probabilities while making a profit.
Air power will be the key.
A modern Russian meme is "to bomb Voronezh". A typical joke went like: "Obama ordered new sanctions on Russia; Putin retaliated by bombing Voronezh". Voronezh, a quaint provincial town south off Moscow, is unremarkable by itself, an Anytown, Russia. Bombing Voronezh is a hyperbola describing the favorite game of Russian ruler, - to punish his citizens for his own mistakes. T
Here is a Russian anti-war streamer. This is a much longer and less formal video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIn41Gl6pVU
Oh dropping nuclear bombs on place-where-I-don’t-live is so funny hahahaha it’s not like nuclear weapons have been a genuine threat since WWII and still is hahaha.
Let's not participate in the vilification of the Russian people.
> Let's not participate in the vilification of the Russian people.
I'm vilifying their leadership. But I'm still amazed there is no revolt there
Meaning, it would be exactly the same humanitarian disaster as Russia is comiting elsewhere right now. Only difference is that a.) nationality of innocent victims b.) event that harms Russia itself as opposed event that harms countries around Russia.
Sure. But let also admit that the support for Ukrainian war and actual ongoing genocide in Ukraine is high in Russia.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/nuclear-...
As unpredictable and irrational as he's become, there's some comfort in Putin's track record of staying off the button. I really hope these events don't cause him to start getting YOLOy
only if maybe Russians will interpret this as super matcho/alpha , to sacrifice entire cities including their future to cleanup your own shit.
You have people capable of extreme destruction being cornered into an existential state, leaving them with very little rational options. This is when the irrational options starts appearing very rational..
True or not, what if this appears like a western backed coup to Putin and his inner circle. The kind of retaliations such an action would call for is unimaginable.
When you put rational people in extremely chaotic situations, they tend to make very irrational choices.
As of just a few hours ago we just entered a world where the following is an actual possibility, albeit an unlikely possibility: Prigozhin closes in, creating an existential crises for Putin and his inner circle. They believe this is a western backed coup where defeat isn't just personal but also defeat for Russia. Putin & his inner circle are put in a position to consider retaliation under the context of a rapidly deteriorating existential crises.
I'm a voracious consumer of history and I can tell the one thing you learn from history is how a set of seemingly unrelated harmless dominos change the world overnight whether if its the death of a duke from a second tier power or the ambition of a failed artist.
And I see that a few started blaming USA, Israel and nazis for this.
Given the fog of war, I am taking a wait and see approach.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/wagner-head-suggests-hi...
Long term it will lead to substantial power movement.
Most of the young nationalistic russians are Wagner fans and despise the ordinary military, they view as corrupt and incompetent (which might be very true).
But they have been the fuel of the war. If Wagner is no more, or just a soulless hulk, this fuel is gone and moral will drop significantly.
And the current options for Prigoshin are
a) become a marty
b) submit to "justice" and public trial (but he knows this will likely not happen, but rather bullet or poison)
c) defect to Ukraine
He already made clear statements, that the war was wrong from the beginning, there was never a threat from Ukraine and the evil military commanders gave Putin wrong information. This sounds to me like building a bridge.
In either case, for the russian empire it is a desaster. And if it becomes a true desaster, there are chances it will become a disaster for everyone, as russian think tanks openly discussed the possibility of "preemptive counter nuclear strike". If they are about to die, they are willing to take everyone with them.
Mostly this is surely bluffing, as they made that statement, while they the internal power struggle was already ongoing as a message to the west: "don't exploit our weakness, we still have nukes". But partly I think it is a legit threat of cornered bullies.
I don't see that happening.
But he knows, that he will confirm in the eye of the russian public, that he is a traitor then. But officially he already is and his loyal forces can never take Moscow.
If nothing else Putin's prerogatives just experienced a sudden realignment. Going to be hard to continue prosecuting the Ukraine invasion.
The core problem is the poorly managed war; Wagner'd be unlikely to rebel if the war was going well and everyone was satisfied with the Russian leadership.
I agree with your perspective that certain aspects of the war weren't managed well by Russia, but disagree that war isn't going well for Russia - they appear to have achieved 80% of their strategic objectives by annexing Crimea and bordering areas of Ukraine, and holding on to it while Ukranian counter-offensives have failed to dislodge the Russians. In fact military experts in both US (Ukraine’s Chances of Victory in 2023 are Vanishingly Small - https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/06/ukraines-chances-of-vict... ) and India (Final Battle In Russia-Ukraine War? - https://youtu.be/D0oA-Y5eTs4 ) agree that the chances of a Ukraine counter-offensive being successful are quite low.
Didn't the head of Wagner have close ties to Putin? I guess those are pretty much severed now?
after the west being duped by him time and again, has there been zero introspection into our own biases? How is anyone believing this?
