I would still buy Apple stock if I had the cash on hand. I think a possible split would make the stock even more attractive as well. ~530/share makes it somewhat hard to make a meaningful investment.
I hope, for Apple's sake and our own, that they don't offer a dividend anywhere in the near future, if ever.
(I'm personally excited for Mountain Lion, how iBook market will shape the field, next gen iPad, so I'm rather optimistic about Apple)
This point alone doesn't mean that they are not a bet worth taking. But that, taken along with the fact that they're now facing tougher odds growing 20% or 30% per annum on already massive sales figures makes it harder to justify investing in them in order to make huge returns. (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/25/business/apple-confronts-t...)
Lastly, and most importantly, society, especially a free one, always finds a way to mobilize against those that are deemed too powerful. The simple argument here is that in order to scale past the law of large numbers and continue to deliver "predictable" growth to the Street, companies sometimes have to push against the limits of acceptable business practices. We have seen that with Walmart, Microsoft, Exxon, BP, AT&T not to mention the robber barons of old.
Free societies, especially representative democracies check such growth with regulation (sometimes necessary, sometimes far reaching, but in its ideal - self-correcting). The same sorts of regulations that prevented AT&T (of old think Ma Bell) and Microsoft from extending its reach, will soon affect Apple. One can argue, it already has. What with lax supervision of its subcontractors in China etc (Foxconn)
That said, I am very impressed with how quickly Apple responded to these accusations, and tended to being more open than closed. An instinct not easily attributed to Apple.
In closing. Apple is probably a safe place to park your cash to hedge inflation. Perhaps even enjoy 4-5% YoY growth averaged aver 10 years. But blockbuster, maybe not.
tl;dr: "one cannot consistently achieve returns in excess of average market returns on a risk-adjusted basis, given the information available at the time the investment is made"
There are many studies that have shown this.
Even if you think you are better informed than the average Apple shareholder - this doesn't matter in the long-run. You may be lucky of course and make a lot of money - but in the long-term average case investing in specific companies is not better than investing in something like the Dow Jones.
Also - the stock market is a highly irrational market that can be shown by a little experiment - I will make it concrete:
As 100 people the following question: Do you think that you know more about Apple than the average Apple investor? Yes or no?
In a perfect world you should get 50 x "yes" and 50 x "no" as an answer. But in reality more than 50% answer with "yes".
Whether it's sustainable in the long term or not, there is definitely room for growth in the short term.
I am a fan of Apple products, but I just dont see it as a good investment, I would suspect that it will either level off or have to talk a fall soon.
So my personal preference is do not buy Apple, I wouldn't (even if I could stomach $525 per share!)
