undefined | Better HN

0 pointsyumraj3y ago0 comments

>Elons point on cars being worth 5x as much .... all of a sudden can be driven 40-50 hours a week ...

Look at it this way, assume humans drive, or need to be driven/travel, X miles per year.

Today, assuming a car drives Y miles per year, the market needs X/Y cars.

Given your argument, with self driving, a car runs nY miles per year, the demand for car will drop to X/nY, basically 1/n of before or maybe a little more, since after all the humans won't suddenly need to drive/travel nX miles per year.

So, if a car were to become worth 5x more, but we need 1/5x cars, the total market would remain the same.

0 comments

6 comments · 2 top-level

TylerE3y ago· 2 in thread

Self driving will increase demand, not decrease, as it will displace other less popular modes of transit. Why call an Uber or taxi after a night at the bar when you can just have your EV drive you home?

Why make a medium-distance flight, when you can just sleep in the back of your EV as it cruises down the highway overnight? (This will pare well with lay flat front seats what would allow turning the car into something like one of those airline sleep pods).

tremon3y ago

Self driving will increase demand, not decrease, as it will displace other less popular modes of transit

Are you sure? How many people right now own a car that they use mostly a few times per week? Car ownership right now is the only way to guarantee personal long-range transport. But if self-driving cars can replace taxis and even some form of public transport, car usage might go up but it's not clear to me that car ownership will go up along with it.

TylerE3y ago

> How many people right now own a car that they use mostly a few times per week?

A lot fewer than the average SF/NYC bubbler probably thinks. It is the only viable means of transportation for probably 90% of americans.

seanmcdirmid3y ago· 2 in thread

If cars drive themselves, you can let them out as Ubers when you don’t need to drive it. That could definitely mean less cars if they are priced aggressively. Peak is still a problem, but public transit can focus on peak rather than non peak (assuming Robo taxis are price efficient).

Even if we need 1/5 cars (and EVs do last longer, so without self driving, this will happen anyways), as long as the lost cars come from your competitors, it’s fine.

haspok3y ago

> If cars drive themselves, you can let them out as Ubers when you don’t need to drive it.

This does not require self driving btw, but a more important question is: would you really? Would you let strangers in your private car? Would you want to clean it afterwards? Would you accept damages other people do to you car? Would it still be your car if strangers use it far more than you do? And at this point we have arrived at car sharing, which already exists today...

yumrajOP3y ago

> as long as the lost cars come from your competitors, it’s fine.

It’s a rather arrogant, and unrealistic assumption, (on Tesla’s part if they are making it) that they will capture the entire market. It’s not going to happen.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse