> For every involved server.
This is misleading. Not every server sees anywhere close to every post, because most servers are not "involved" with any given user, and that becomes increasingly true the larger the network becomes. Larger servers sees a large proportion but also receives only one copy of each post even though they're likely to have multiple recipients.
Realistically, the number we're looking at for the source server is about half the total network cost for that set of users.
> This just doesn't scale, no matter how cheap bandwidth and storage will get in the next years.
The cost per user of running a Fediverse instance is dropping, not rising, even as the network size has exploded. And as it is, the main cost of running e.g. Mastodon is that Mastodon, fittingly, is a huge, inefficient, resource-hungry beast. Not that federation is inherently costly.
My prediction is that the average cost per user for bandwidth, compute, and storage will be <$0.10/month within a couple of years. It's probably below that already if done efficiently enough at reasonable scale.
The bulk of the cost will be admin, moderation and ops, which scales linearly or sub-linearly with number of users.