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0 pointsspaceman_20203y ago0 comments

You know all on chain data is visible, right?

1. NFT platforms usage volume. OS is down below 5,000 users [0]

2. Arbitrum airdrop to 625k wallets. Most users have multiple wallets. I got airdrops on 3 different wallets. Some friends sybilled this to over 100 wallets. Actual unique wallets not more than 100k. Even free money can't entice people to use this. [1]

3. $PEPE total holders: 35,000. Exclude bots and multiple wallets and that's not more than 15k actual users. Hottest memecoin that shit up to $150M mcap in four days. [2]

4. USDT daily unique senders/receivers - under 80,000. This doesn't exclude bots, exchanges, smart contracts, and users with multiple wallets (I have 8 wallets). You also can't go more mainstream or "utility" than this coin. Real unique daily users are probably under 30k. [3]

Exchange users are immaterial. They're just traders and investors buying the next cycle of trash. Actual usage metrics are on-chain users.

This is being pitched as the next Visa but in reality, the network slows to a crawl even when it has to serve 10-20k real users. Meanwhile, Visa is able to serve literally hundreds of millions of users every month.

0. https://dune.com/queries/1622348/2688962?utm_source=mintorsk...

1. https://dune.com/blockworks_research/arb-airdrop

2. https://etherscan.io/token/0x6982508145454Ce325dDbE47a25d4ec...

3. https://etherscan.io/token/0xdac17f958d2ee523a2206206994597c...

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humanizersequel3y ago

I am not interested in getting into the weeds, but honestly, the fact that you're pointing to actual memecoins like "$PEPE" and spurious DAU measurements, but still ceding a 10x of your original 1-2k users claim gives me very little confidence in you being a serious person.

spaceman_2020OP3y ago

I have very little confidence in your reading comprehension. I said DAUs of OS (OpenSea) are down to a few thousand, not all of crypto.

I also shared unique transacting addresses for USDT yesterday. That's surely not a memecoin, and that was under 80,000 addresses yesterday.

I trade crypto and its very profitable, but don't waste your time buying the hopium of this scam.

olalonde3y ago

Bitcoin: around 4,000,000,000 USD transacted yesterday on-chain (not counting off-chain)[0].

Ethereum: around 3,000,000,000 USD transacted yesterday on-chain (not counting off-chain)[1].

[0] https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/charts/estimated-transac...

[1] https://www.theblock.co/data/on-chain-metrics/ethereum/ether...

ChainOfFools3y ago

This is such a quintessentially crypto huckster response, with all the usual blind spots in all the usual places. You've measured virtual dollars, while OP was measuring actual human users.

olalonde3y ago

He didn't. Like he admitted, it's not possible to do so with any sort of accuracy using on chain data. There are over a billion Bitcoin addresses but this might overcount the number of users since wallets are typically composed of multiple addresses, or it could undercount due to the popularity of custodian service where multiple users share the same addresses.

The best we can do are surveys. According to this one[0], there are around 34 million Americans that have a cryptocurrency wallet. I suppose the world wide number of users is a lot higher.

[0] https://www.insiderintelligence.com/insights/us-adults-crypt...

ChainOfFools3y ago

Your link isn't showing up yet , but I can answer anyway with my own survey. I can account for over a hundred different crypto wallets, including a number of duplicates on the same chain, some of which have been active at one point or another over the past decade. At one point about 6 years ago it was close to a thousand. And in the circles I used to frequent (miners and pool ops - often the same entities), this was a middling number, not extraordinary at all.

The simple observation that one runs* into the same several dozen people over, and over, and over again at every crypto congregation whether online or in person, should be a strong indication that this is an extremely inbred space and the sock puppetry amplification from principal to agent is conservatively inflating usage metrics by a factor of 100 if not more.

* edit: okay this is somewhat dated information, maybe today it's a couple hundred instead of several dozen.

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spaceman_2020OP3y ago

I literally shared on chain data. That's actual users. Even if you assume that all 80k unique wallets that exchanged USDT yesterday were real users, that's just...80,000 users. Niche forums have more users than that.

Anyone who has ever created an account on a crypto exchange has a crypto address. I have accounts at Binance, WazirX, Kraken, Crypto.com, Gate.io, Mexc, ByBit, and probably 2-3 more exchanges I can't remember. That means I have 10+ addresses.

But that's not real users. Any money I've sent to exchanges is just for trading/investing. I'm not actually using the tech.

On-chain usage is the only real usage. The rest is just banking with more hurdles and scams.

2 more replies

spaceman_2020OP3y ago

Apples and oranges. I'm talking about real usage. You're talking about people exchanging house money for more make believe money.

Crypto has been positioned as the decentralized alternative to Visa and SWIFT. Their real human users number in the tens of millions daily.

The point remains that if the tech falls apart even with 10-20k real daily users, how does it ever scale to 10-20M daily users?

Also, Bitcoin transaction volume peaked in 2018 and has been trending down for a while :)

olalonde3y ago

No, this is the on-chain transaction data ("real usage"). The transactions you are referring to ("exchanging house money for more make believe money") is the exchange volume which does not appear on chain and is a lot higher ($18,000,000,000+ for Bitcoin yesterday).

I'm not sure why you say transaction volume peaked in 2018, it didn't. You can zoom out from the graph I linked to and chose the "All" timeframe. There's a lot of variance but 2018 wasn't the peak.

> The point remains that if the tech falls apart even with 10-20k real daily users, how does it ever scale to 10-20M daily users?

Second layer systems like the Liquid network.

spaceman_2020OP3y ago

Does this chart look like the volume is growing vis-a-vis the marketcap and marketing?

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactions.ht...

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humanizersequel3y ago

spaceman_2020OP3y ago

I have very little confidence in your reading comprehension. I said DAUs of OS (OpenSea) are down to a few thousand, not all of crypto.

I also shared unique transacting addresses for USDT yesterday. That's surely not a memecoin, and that was under 80,000 addresses yesterday.

I trade crypto and its very profitable, but don't waste your time buying the hopium of this scam.

olalonde3y ago

Bitcoin: around 4,000,000,000 USD transacted yesterday on-chain (not counting off-chain)[0].

Ethereum: around 3,000,000,000 USD transacted yesterday on-chain (not counting off-chain)[1].

[0] https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/charts/estimated-transac...

[1] https://www.theblock.co/data/on-chain-metrics/ethereum/ether...

ChainOfFools3y ago

This is such a quintessentially crypto huckster response, with all the usual blind spots in all the usual places. You've measured virtual dollars, while OP was measuring actual human users.

olalonde3y ago

The best we can do are surveys. According to this one[0], there are around 34 million Americans that have a cryptocurrency wallet. I suppose the world wide number of users is a lot higher.

[0] https://www.insiderintelligence.com/insights/us-adults-crypt...

ChainOfFools3y ago

* edit: okay this is somewhat dated information, maybe today it's a couple hundred instead of several dozen.

2 more replies

spaceman_2020OP3y ago

But that's not real users. Any money I've sent to exchanges is just for trading/investing. I'm not actually using the tech.

On-chain usage is the only real usage. The rest is just banking with more hurdles and scams.

2 more replies

spaceman_2020OP3y ago

Apples and oranges. I'm talking about real usage. You're talking about people exchanging house money for more make believe money.

Crypto has been positioned as the decentralized alternative to Visa and SWIFT. Their real human users number in the tens of millions daily.

The point remains that if the tech falls apart even with 10-20k real daily users, how does it ever scale to 10-20M daily users?

Also, Bitcoin transaction volume peaked in 2018 and has been trending down for a while :)

olalonde3y ago

I'm not sure why you say transaction volume peaked in 2018, it didn't. You can zoom out from the graph I linked to and chose the "All" timeframe. There's a lot of variance but 2018 wasn't the peak.

> The point remains that if the tech falls apart even with 10-20k real daily users, how does it ever scale to 10-20M daily users?

Second layer systems like the Liquid network.

spaceman_2020OP3y ago

Does this chart look like the volume is growing vis-a-vis the marketcap and marketing?

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactions.ht...

1 more reply

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse