undefined | Better HN

0 pointsblibble2y ago0 comments

> Chip scaling still seems to be going pretty fast

it's not been exponential for years

> So we could end up hitting a wall with chip scaling

we did, years ago

0 comments

“it's not been exponential for years”

Really? Even a 5% generation-to-generation improvement would be exponential, it’s just 1.05 to the power of the generation. If it was linear you’d have benchmark results scaling by a fixed number of points each generation, which doesn’t seem to be a thing as far as I know

blibbleOP2y ago

> Even a 5% generation-to-generation improvement would be exponential, it’s just 1.05 to the power of the generation.

if you change the exponent from 2 to 1.05 at some point then it is no longer an "exponential" function

(guess what happened to chip scaling?)

if the exponent changes (EVER) then it's no longer "exponential", it's likely sigmoidal

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse