Ask HN: Criteria for top startups in a macro downturn

I was having a conversation with a friend going through a job search who was looking for a role at a startup – and I struggled a bit to given them guidance on what a "top tier" private company looks like these days.

I feel like 5+ years ago it was implicitly obvious which companies were growing like gangbusters and doing well - less so today.

Question to y'all: What criteria would you use to measure which startups are most likely to be successful today? Are there any specific non-public tech companies you'd call out (and why)