> The real question I have is 1) how close are we to human replacement AGI levels, and 2) even if we don't get full AGI, how much of a societal shakeup is going to occur with what we have.

We have been replacing humans for a long time, with animals, machines, computing, robotics and now some limited AI.

I can't answer about how much of a shakeup it will be. I fully expect the world to get worse as time passes. Enjoy things while they last.

> We are already at the point of digital development that the argument of "We dont have AGI" is mostly meaningless. We need to have discussions at a societal and legal level on what we're going to do to prepare our lives for it occurring sooner than later to avoid catastrophic consequences.

I agree with discussions on societal and legal level to reduce impact of technology on humans, but I fully expect those discussions to go nowhere and catastrophic consequences happening either way.