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0 pointspalata3y ago0 comments

A first good step IMO is to accept that we suck at predicting.

0 comments

We are great at predicting. The number one task of the huge human neocortex is predicting the future.

If you look at the past HN comments there were users who predicted the raise of OpenAI, the war in Ukraine and so on.

mym19903y ago

Predicting isn’t some black and white skill. The neocortex doing calculations in the background to predict how heavy a cup of coffee might be or how hot the stove is…is very different from consciously predicting geopolitical events which are based on countless other variables. In a world of 8 billion people of course you will see some get things right, and then conveniently point it out…but most people’s predictions are wrong, and no one pays attention to those results.

palataOP3y ago

Did you forget a "/s", or do you actually believe that?

SideburnsOfDoom3y ago

No, but they are playing word games. yes, the human brain is a great engine designed for predicting future events and working with that e.g. how to catch a ball that is coming towards you and will arrive shortly in the future, how to throw an object and hit a target, how to pick up a heavy object and move it to where you need it, etc.

But this is not at all the same kind of "predicting future events" as accurately saying where e.g. the CryptoCurrency or VR industry will be in a decade or so.

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