For the Russian threat in particular, I simply don't see a way for Russia to attack Sweden without inherently having to attack Finland, Norway or Denmark also. Sure, they might fly some planes & bomb some things, but that won't win a war by itself. There's just no viable beach head attack route purely from international waters to Sweden -- the defense plan for the Baltic sea is based on mine blockades, and Swedes excel at submarine operations, so I'd think a direct attack by sea from such a singular direction would be pretty hopeless, if the attack really is constrained by not wanting to touch the neighbors.