I find it interesting to consider “who would the Democrats most prefer to run against in 2024?”
If the economy is weak, I think they’d rather run against Trump (who has a base that’s fiercely loyal but more narrow) rather than a GOP candidate who will pull the majority of Trump’s base but also a wider swath from the “center” population by hammering on the economy.
If the economy is strong, historically it doesn’t matter much who the incumbent runs against.