So there’s no incentive to work with a bank that took the time and money to pass a stress test — in fact the one that didn’t bother to do any testing can give better terms as they aren’t spending money to be safe.
I agree there's no moral hazard as to the SVB shareholders, since they got zeroed. There is a moral hazard as to the shareholders of other banks, who will benefit from the new lending program in proportion to the amount of bad interest rate risk they took.
If you are large enough player to be visible in the "systemic risks" picture you should be helping to stabilize the system, not just throwing your weight around like a drunk elephant to see where money falls out.
. Pending litigation . Counter party risks (e.g. do they have exposure to a problem bank) . Financial statements (usually the first stop and contains a lot of information) . Credit Default Swap rates (what does it cost to insure the debt issued by the bank) . What rules does the bank operate under (domestic, foreign, state, federal, etc.) . General reputation in the industry (e.g. go to $CS to launder your cocaine money)
That being said, it's probably beyond a small business to really evaluate their bank risk. And while 250k may have been adequate for the 2010's, it may no longer be sufficient to cover many small businesses (and by small I mean the back office is a handful of people). Should it be 500k? 1 million? I don't know. What I suspect is that making it unlimited, it means that a bank that's hemorrhaging depositors could offer unsustainably higher rates. Less risk-sensitive CFOs might decide that parking 10 million in reserves might be a good deal since it's as safe as an officially insured deposit. It's much more liquid than holding a 90-day CD or 3 month T-bill to maturity. Suddenly, the bank is flush with deposits, but is still going under. This would be kind of like the 1980's S&L crisis. That's why I'm all for raising the cap, but with clear limits and adjustments to the fees charged to member banks for insurance. If we need to expand the FDIC insurance fund by 3x to raise the cap, that's fine. But raising the cap, for an extended period, without adjusting the rules or the price for the insurance could lead to unintended consequences.
Should a VC funded company of 10 people do what GM does when evaluating a supplier or customer? Probably not. What about when it gets to 100 people? At that point I would expect there to be a competent CFO. What about the VC? (I'm just going to ignore all the tweets from the All-In community that showed a profound lack of understanding of banking, confusing a modern bank Gringot's.) Should the VC, as part of their advisory role, maybe recommend a good part time CFO or cash manager? Did regulators screw up SVB? Possibly, there were a lot of issues found when they transitioned to a new regulatory team year or two ago (or so I read). But regulators are not bank managers. And if a bank can show their risk controls are adequate, and those risk controls are being followed, it does not mean they're making good investments. (It's arguable that both lack of controls and following controls were an issue for SVB - as far as I've read).
The bank had poor risk management, regulators were asleep at the wheel, depositors are blameless. Although I will say that a startup with millions in the bank should probably have a CFO.
That it’s apparently news to a bunch of cash heavy depositors at SVB is one of the more revealing parts of the crisis to me.
That being said, two people running an Etsy store won't do that. Nor should they have to. Maybe the insurance should be bumped up, but for either a very limited time, until you write new, official rules. And yes, the CFO should do an appropriate level of due diligence for a large business with lots of money. It makes you wonder what some of the CFOs did all day.
You always keep your foot on the brakes in case someone is drunk driving on the road. At the same time, you'll try to fix those issues via legislation (DUI) and technology
This assumes that there future uninsured deposits are guaranteed (they may be, yes, but this is a bet, not a certainty).
Regardless, you're making the case that consumer choice is not sufficient pressure to enforce safety measures. Which is correct, but we already knew that! That's the purpose of regulations.
Expecting industries to self-regulate in response to market forces is a losing battle.