Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general...
Date of Artificial General Intelligence https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-...
The latter includes this criterion: "Able to get top-1 strict accuracy of at least 90.0% on interview-level problems found in the APPS benchmark introduced by Dan Hendrycks, Steven Basart et al."
The APPS benchmark: https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.09938
Note that the predicted date of "stronger" AGI has moved quite a lot since GPT-4 is revealed, from late 2030s to 2033 at this moment.