"GPT-4 or subsequent models may lead to the automation of certain jobs.[81] This could result in workforce displacement.[82] Over time, we expect GPT-4 to impact even jobs that have historically required years of experience and education, such as legal services.[83]"
What scares me is we are unprepared for the kind of change that a perpetual 20% unemployment rate is going to trigger.
That was as close of a test of the idea as the US will ever get. Another country will have to try and have it be VERY successful for a second shot at it here.
What scares me is we are unprepared for the kind of change that a perpetual 20% unemployment rate is going to trigger.
Every new technology since the Industrial Revolution kicked off has been claimed to herald the elimination of millions of jobs and the dawn of permanent unemployment--and often they have eliminated millions of jobs, yet the permanent unemployment never comes. People in the past have always struggled to imagine the new jobs that will be created, and maybe we aren't any better at it.
its so refreshing to see all the people in this thread who are expressing their concern about the most extreme employment/economic shockwave of all time. it gets way too little attention. but the impact on employment will be the very least of our worries not too long from now. mostly because people are too stupid to either realize that something terrible is happening or do anything about it.
The same will be true for many many white collar jobs.
Haven't we heard this narrative before with other disruptive technologies such as self-driving technology? No one doubts the potential changes wrought by GPT-4 but it's a long, rocky road ahead. Protectionism policies created by governments are already coming to the forefront, like ChatGPT being banned in NYC schools.
Overall it seems GPT-4 is an incremental upgrade to GPT-3.5 and not a major jump between GPT-2 vs. GPT-3. We might have to wait until GPT-6 to see these forecasted workforce displacement changes to affect en-masse.
