Well, not all USD is stuck in SVB, at least according to what they claim. If Coinbase knows that they have the reserves to back USDC, or 93% of the reserves to back USDC, then them buying back any USDC on the open market at 90% or less is huge amounts of certain profit, while everyone else has to gamble on what the Coinbase actual capabilities are and in many cases are willing to accept a haircut to gain certainty.
The problem is that Coinbase probably has no way to say for sure what percentage of the reserves will actually be liquid on Monday. Other banks which held USDC reserves included Signature Bank of NY and Silvergate, both of which are also looking shaky.
I think that only holds up while people still have faith in the coin. Once that faith is gone Coinbase can buy as much as they want the coin is worthless.
I mean with their on chain liquidity. They’d have first right to honor the exchange with themselves so unlike someone else trying to redeem it, they have no counter party risk. Each $.80 token the buy on chain could write off a $1 USDC position.
