Predicted 2000, 2008-09, and 2020. Predicted growth from 2003-2007. Falsely predicted a double-dip in 2011. Predicted growth from 2012-2020. Correctly predicted that 2015 and 2017-2018 would not result in recessions at a time that media and some friends were saying they would. Incorrectly predicted that 2020 recession would last longer than it did - I reversed opinion in early 2021, which was a little late to capture much of the upside. Correctly predicted the 2020+ inflation.
In general I've got close to 100% success at avoiding major disasters, but also tend to be a little bit jumpy on the trigger and sometimes forecast disasters that do not happen. ("A little bit" meaning about a 30-40% false-positive rate, not a perma-bear.) I also usually predict a higher severity and longer duration than actually occurs.
