Ask HN: Is Putin eyeing Georgia next, given his poor traction in Ukraine?

He doesn't seem to have the resources (or troops) just for Ukraine, so it would be surprising if he opened a new front in Georgia. Abandoning the Ukraine invasion seems very unlikely given the optics.

I think more likely scenarios are:

- allying with nearby dictators to boost his military and sphere of influence (already happening with China)

- starting to use tactical nukes

- "soft annexing" nearby territories by pushing pro-Putin candidates (similar to what the US did in Central/South America in the 20th century)

He really needs to find a cheap source of military hardware, because his biggest political liability at home is sending more Russians to die. China may end up helping with both.

Why would Putin be helping pro-West demonstrators? Wouldn't he be helping the sitting government against the demonstators?

I just saw a photo of the demonstrations with pro-West demonstrators being cloaked in EU flags.

Looks more like the 'Color Revolution' playbook to me.

This is an interesting piece related to this question

[PDF] - https://www.ponarseurasia.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Pep...

People like Putin usually play a long game. Russia has been undermining its neighbors and the west of the world for a long time for instance by sponsoring Transnistria and separatists in Ukraine and Georgia, right wing extremists everywhere, as well as actions like the 2014 Crimea invasion. The 2022 invasion of Ukraine seems impulsive and poorly planned and consumes resources required if they were to attack other countries but in the long term it might deter Russia from similar actions or it may build capacity to do that sort of thing.

They will keep trying to undermine Georgia but an actual attack will have to wait.

not tech-related