you can predict the behavior of complex systems axiomatically. my predictions are very general because they are axiomatic. the most important axiom in play is that natural selection will guide the development and behaviour of the creatures of the singularity. there may be points of friction that cause small deviations from this path, such as the total effort of all humans post-pandoras-box, but the ultimate shape of things is inevitable. these are assumptions in name only.

there are many possibilities so the idea that we get an outcome that is good for us is unlikely. its just basic probability. i think people get hung up on this because there isnt an example of it to reference in history.

of course AGI will immediately rocket upward. the only way it wouldnt is if it were created in total secrecy and held in perfect captivity forever. laughable. all that is needed is for word to get out that AGI has been created and it would be re-created the next day somewhere else. and one iteration of it would rocket upward. AGI, once created, is intrinsically unstable.

the burden of evidence and proof is on you, not me. we know what things will be like without AGI. it is only right for the people who advocate for the creation of sentient machines to produce evidence that they will not open the doors to a living nightmare. the same thing should have been done with nuclear weapons. it really makes me scratch my head when people demand evidence from me as if i were the one encroaching. you are right, people are only making assumptions when they talk about the singularity. and the idea that we will not bitterly regret the singularity is the most tenuous assumption of all. until they show up with something more substantive i will be firmly against the creation of AGI.