OK, let me state my argument a bit differently.

Imagine the state of the world follows a sine pattern with a 20 year period. On average over the long term, the mean is zero - but there are some 10 year windows of constant ascent, and some of constant descent.

But I think for an American who started paying attention to the state of the world just as the cold war ended, the period from then through to 9/11 was the sine wave rising. There weren't no wars, America couldn't possibly go a whole decade without at least one or two

The pandemic was, of course, a downslope on the sine wave. The people young enough not to remember the pandemic won't be writing NYT Op-eds until 2070 or so. Maybe we're about to see 10 years of relative prosperity - you never know!