Ask HN: What is going on in the ad-tech market?

8 pointsin_vestor3y ago15 comments

The NYT ran a story this week about deterioration ad quality.

It’s obvious to everyone here that services like google search, social media, and YouTube have had user experience vastly degraded in the hunt for ad revenue.

Apps and sites that should have long ago perished are able to linger on like ghosts, endangering user data (MySpace still exists).

And yet this earnings quarter, we learned that companies are doing better than we expected. Meta is growing its user base and google is increasing its clicks. Despite the wishes of the media, twitter is doing OK. Dilapidated app companies continue to raise funds.

What is going on? What would cause the ad-funded ecosystem to fundamentally change?

Looking for insight from people on the front lines.

15 comments

tacosbane3y ago

ads are essentially noise. some high-nines number of ads have no effect. to counteract this, demand-side providers came up with ways to fake an effect to look valuable. they then discovered clients couldn't tell the difference between real or fake, or didn't care because the clients also want to say their ads worked. then the race to the bottom began: buy the absolute minimum quality for as little as you possibly can. that put pressure on the supply side because their revenues fell.

examples of faking: - the search "companyname" takes credit for "companyname.com" - "we promise we didn't show you the one positive result from running 1000 tests"

cm20123y ago

Every comment here is wrong, which is typical for an advertising related thread on HN. Here's the actual reason:

1) Apple made a change last year (in ios 14.5) that neutered the ability for platforms to track results from mobile advertising.

2) This fucked ad targeting for pretty much everyone that relies on mobile web and apps (fb, tiktok, snap, etc)

3) Products that require good targeting to be profitable became harder to promote (like all b2b advertising, niche needs and hobbies ,etc) so more ads are ones that appeal to the average person, which means more teeth whitening strips, weight loss solutions, etc.

vmoore3y ago

> What would cause the ad-funded ecosystem to fundamentally change?

I don't have the stats, but AD blockers & tracking blockers are a real spanner in the works for AD-Tech. I imagine blocker popularity exponentially increases as each year passes, meaning at some point they will make a substantial dent in AD-supported sites who rely on income from ADs to stay online.

Google has so much data on people they can essentially read people's minds, so they are doing fine in regards to targeting people properly. They have a tight ship and it works (For now). Same for Facebook, although Apple's tracking opt-out apparently is hurting their business.

rpmw3y ago

I work in the industry and ad blockers are not a significant concern. It's a cat and mouse game for sure, but the vast vast majority of traffic is doing nothing to block ads.

I guess an immeasurable userbase's potential spend is hard to measure against total realized ad spend, but in my corner of the world traffic, users, and revenue are only increasing YoY.

mejutoco3y ago

While not an ad-blocker, I want to add that updates to iOS privacy defaults were very present a 1-2 years ago in the marketing tech community.

s1k3s3y ago

Weird, when I worked in the industry, AdBlock was a "30% revenue loss" concern. Can you detail why that's no longer the case?

1 more reply

jeffbee3y ago

How did you figure that Twitter is "doing OK"? Reports from this morning suggest they have lost two thirds of their revenue since October.

in_vestorOP3y ago

I mean the site hasn’t collapsed like everyone thought it would 2 months ago. But besides that, I would be astounded if they have actually lost 50%+ of revenue. Keep in mind that few people would actually know those financials, and they would be reluctant to share. Also, I’m no musk fanboy, but the level of hatred and doom mongering in the press right now is…weird, to say the least.

red-iron-pine3y ago

> Keep in mind that few people would actually know those financials, and they would be reluctant to share

they're a publicly traded company, they are obligated by law to share financial information every quarter.

1 more reply

mejutoco3y ago

I mean, it is easier not to collapse with long periods of not being able to post. People were using the scheduled post-one-minute-later to be able to post anything at all.

red-iron-pine3y ago

> It’s obvious to everyone here that services like google search, social media, and YouTube have had user experience vastly degraded in the hunt for ad revenue.

In a nutshell: capitalism gonna capitalism.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

15 comments

tacosbane3y ago

examples of faking: - the search "companyname" takes credit for "companyname.com" - "we promise we didn't show you the one positive result from running 1000 tests"

cm20123y ago

Every comment here is wrong, which is typical for an advertising related thread on HN. Here's the actual reason:

1) Apple made a change last year (in ios 14.5) that neutered the ability for platforms to track results from mobile advertising.

2) This fucked ad targeting for pretty much everyone that relies on mobile web and apps (fb, tiktok, snap, etc)

vmoore3y ago

> What would cause the ad-funded ecosystem to fundamentally change?

rpmw3y ago

I work in the industry and ad blockers are not a significant concern. It's a cat and mouse game for sure, but the vast vast majority of traffic is doing nothing to block ads.

I guess an immeasurable userbase's potential spend is hard to measure against total realized ad spend, but in my corner of the world traffic, users, and revenue are only increasing YoY.

mejutoco3y ago

While not an ad-blocker, I want to add that updates to iOS privacy defaults were very present a 1-2 years ago in the marketing tech community.

s1k3s3y ago

Weird, when I worked in the industry, AdBlock was a "30% revenue loss" concern. Can you detail why that's no longer the case?

1 more reply

jeffbee3y ago

How did you figure that Twitter is "doing OK"? Reports from this morning suggest they have lost two thirds of their revenue since October.

in_vestorOP3y ago

red-iron-pine3y ago

> Keep in mind that few people would actually know those financials, and they would be reluctant to share

they're a publicly traded company, they are obligated by law to share financial information every quarter.

1 more reply

mejutoco3y ago

I mean, it is easier not to collapse with long periods of not being able to post. People were using the scheduled post-one-minute-later to be able to post anything at all.

red-iron-pine3y ago

> It’s obvious to everyone here that services like google search, social media, and YouTube have had user experience vastly degraded in the hunt for ad revenue.

In a nutshell: capitalism gonna capitalism.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse