> normal Americans
Please revise this phrase. America consists of many different climates and it's very unclear what you mean or why you chose the word "normal."
> More expensive to run power wise
You're comparing new gas HVAC vs new heat pump. However, don't forget about all the folks that are purchasing a heat pump to replace an existing gas unit! For example, my gas unit (Goodman unit used in California) is old and not even energy star compliant! A new heat pump will be more efficient.
> With a heat pump, you -need- an alternative source of heat
By 'you' are you referring to me (or, say, the ~7% of the US population that lives in my small area of the country)? If so, that's not true! It doesn't get too cold here. And I reckon there are quite a few areas in this country where it doesn't get cold enough for a heat pump to eat shit.
When you refer to prices and returns on investment, are you using a unit + professional installation cost (like $18k+ or something)? Or the unit itself (~$4.5k) plus perhaps a DIY installation costs (~$1.5-2k)? There is a big range there in costs, and the ROI is dependent on that.