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0 pointsmoose_man3y ago0 comments

The Cold War had expectations, guardrails, rules. Those don't exist in the current setup. China didn't even pick up the emergency hotline in the first balloon crisis.

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ethbr03y ago

From first approximation, there are 2 major questions to initiating a conflict.

1. Will I be able to stay in power? (Related: Will my populace support this war? Will my economy keep functioning?)

2. Will I end the conflict with more power / prestige / resources? (Related: How expensive will the conflict be in blood and treasure?)

Most of the things the West are doing over Ukraine are to make the "Related" answers less palatable. Very few people are calculating enough to climb to power, then risk everything on a gamble with bad odds.

If China gets serious about Kinmen and Matsu, then everyone should start worrying.

foobarbecue3y ago

So... it's worse?

influx3y ago

In the 80s, I resided on a US Military base in West Germany. Currently, I feel like the world is getting closer to World War III, which is the closest experience I have had in my lifetime. There is ongoing conflict in Europe involving a country that possesses nuclear weapons.

Additionally, tensions are escalating with China and the economy seems unstable. I sincerely hope that reasonable minds will be able to prevent any further escalation of these conflicts, but there is always the possibility of an unintentional incident that could lead to an expansion of these wars.

LarryMullins3y ago

The Cold War wasn't uniform of course, there were periods of greatly increased tension and periods of relative relaxation (e.g. Détente.) What we have now is somewhere in the middle, I'd say on the peaceful/Détente side of the scale.

moose_manOP3y ago

Honestly, I've been watching this unfold since 2012 and the point where we are now is pretty bleak. Unless something intervenes to change the course of where things are going, we're headed for a bad place. It's bleak to the point where experts on both sides (Chinese and US) seem resigned to conflict.

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