> There are things like “shrink-flation” not captured

I hear this everywhere, but as far as I can tell its a complete myth. The "basket of goods" that CPI is based on does keep track of changes in quality and quantity of the goods.

> If the selected item is no longer available, or if there have been changes in the quality or quantity (for example, a container of orange juice containing 59 ounces instead of 64 ounces) of the good or service since the last time prices were collected, the data collector selects a new item similar to the old item. This is referred to as a substitution.

> When substitution occurs, the commodity analyst reviews the new item and price. The new price may be quality adjusted for use in index computation. Conceptually, the CPI seeks to be a constant-quality measure, though accurately quantifying quality change may not always be possible. Detailed information about quality adjustment procedures is in the calculation section.

https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/cpi/data.htm

> much of the increase occurred in 2021 - it just never came down.

That's not actually in disagreement with the notion that inflation has come down a lot.

(for prices to come down you'd need deflation)

1. Nobody is saying that there has been deflation, so yes, prices that have gone up will remain up. The old baseline, the one in your head, that's gone. The question now is will prices keep going up, and the answer seems to be no.

In addition, a series of issues unrelated to monetary policy have hit individual items like eggs (avian flu) and lettuce (INSV) and so on, because food is messy.

2. The election season has been over for two months, and yet the SPR is continuing to contribute to US supply[0], so apparently not everybody thinks solely in election terms.

Russia is more complicated; they are at least as focused on their limited opportunities to earn and spend money given sanctions as on hurting us, which they might see as less easy to do now that the election season has been over for two months.

0. https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_ending_stocks_of_crude_oil...

> 1. There are things like “shrink-flation” not captured.

Poppycock. From StatCan, who do the CPI numbers in Canada:

> 7.10 Quantity adjustment entails accounting for changes in the quantity (e.g. package size, number of tissue ply, etc.) of observed POs. This is another implicit method of quality adjustment because it is assumed that the quality per standardized unit is the same over time.

* https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/pub/62-553-x/62-553-x2019...

> 2. Fuel is only down because the US has used its strategic reserve to increase supply.

Fuel is down in Canada as well, which has no strategic reserve. Or it could be because geopolitical events have stabilized a bit and global oil prices are down:

* https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO

> Though, to your point, much of the increase occurred in 2021 - it just never came down.

Yeah, the data is inflation going down (and not to negative values) year over year, not prices going down. Just means prices are inflating slower, not going negative.

And shrinkflation has been around for decades. It was a thing even when inflation was at 'normal' 2% levels.

Edgar Dworsky is the guy that all the media companies bring on as the expert on shrinkflation (just look up his name, pretty much all news sites have articles about him), has had his blog up pointing out all the instances of shrinkflation since as far back as 2006[1].

[1]: https://www.mouseprint.org/

RE 2: As far as I can tell the last strategic reserve sale occurred in mid-November with no sales in December / bids for repurchases being solicited. It's possible that the supply effects continued through December, but it seems a bit tenuous without economic modeling.