The reality is we cannot see the future of our incredibly complex, ever-changing economy. Sure, this hasn't happened in the past, but on the other hand the economy today is vastly different than it was even fifty years ago. Not to say we couldn't end in a recession - of course that is a distinct possibility - but the reality is that we don't have a ton of history to draw on when it comes to post-pandemic recessions exacerbated by supply chain issues and large-scale war in major energy-producing countries.

I wonder if you've shorted the equities markets to the greatest degree practically possible given your financial situation? If not, then I think you're phrasing things with too great a degree of absoluteness.

In terms of the Fed's goal, it is reduction of inflation. Unemployment is both a driver and a signal of that, but it's not the ultimate goal. And besides, a rise in unemployment doesn't guarantee a recession - we're at 3.5% and folks from the Fed have said they see 4% as consistent with keeping inflation stable at an appropriate level. It is absolutely possible to have 4% inflation and not be in a recession.