The first is 100% guaranteed unless someone makes a synthetic virus that turns our entire species into peace-and-love hippies. I recon that would probably be a good thing, probably.
Enough people will respond with the second that, although it can be avoided with skill and courage and charismatic leadership, it has a decent risk.
Even just politics, it’s not just two parties: When I say there is a literal Communist Party of the United States of America, it’s not a sarcastic reference to the Democrats, nor even to the Greens. Even within parties, you see political divisions. And political enemies aren’t limited to domestic politics.