I think we're on the same page on this one. I was mostly trying to explain this sort of behavior based on the (semi-)efficient market hypothesis, and its implications.
VC's (and their customers) tend to portend some sort of knowledge that a sufficient portion of other market actors are unaware of, or are unable to act on. If you (a VC customer) believe the VC, and perceive his reasoning to be correct, that's all fine and good. Don't expect to win every time, though, which I guess was the point of this thread.
That said, thanks for pointing my direction to the MPT!