My biggest concern is, while I agree with you that S&P 2023 EPS TTM could end up being $200, because we have not yet seen this reflected in estimates (Yardeni earnings forecasts shows $235 as an estimate), we have more room to fall before the expectation (let alone the reality) of that is priced in.
$235 Yarendi expectation -> $200 your expectation is a 15% difference. That means analysts (and consequentially the market pricing in those analysts expectations) are "incorrectly" estimating earnings 15% higher than they might be in your opinion.
Scary times.
