We are also pretty early into the cycle to declare that a recession is inevitable. Yet that's what a lot of people are saying. The only thing that can be said with certainty is that the future is risky and unclear. IOW, situation normal, all f^#$ed up.

It's not the election, it's Black Friday that will be the bellweather, I think. If inflation is still ongoing, discounts will be minimal. If the economy is going south, sales will be tepid. Nobody is ready to lower prices permanently, but temporarily? Massive discounts are the traditional way for retailers to lower prices in times of uncertainty. The rise of the dollar and the inflation of the past year will give retailers lots of room for discounts, so I expect to see them liberally applied. And with unemployment so low and low-income wages rising so quickly, I expect to see record retail spending this month.