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0 pointskgwgk3y ago0 comments

Every single day it will either rain or it won't. Sometimes you will take an umbrella. Based on what you consider the X of rain. That action of yours will be - you hope - non-causally correlated with reality in the sense that if you take the umbrella very many times, you would end up using it often enough to make it worth it.

X is what people call 'probability'. How do you call it? [Thor's will?] Have you noticed any correlation between you taking the umbrella and rain later in the day?

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ThomPete3y ago· 2 in thread

None of that require probability. Ignorance is still ignorance even if you dress it up to sound scientific. You are just guessing.

kgwgkOP3y ago

I don't know what does it mean to "require probability".

I'd say that it "is probability". The concept that is in our heads, mind you.

When you are guessing between the exhaustive and mutually exclusive outcomes A, B and C in such a way that

guess(A)>0, guess(B)>0, guess(C)>0

and

guess(A or B or C) = guess(A) + guess(B) + guess(C) = 1

and

guess(A or B) = guess(A) + guess(B), guess(A or C) = guess(A) + guess(C), guess(B or C) = guess(B) + guess(C)

then

guess is a probability measure as defined by Kolmogorov, for example.

That's why most people don't see any problem in calling that "probability".

You may like the name of "guessing" better but insisting in that it should not be referred to as probability and it doesn't require probability seems an uphill battle.

ThomPete3y ago

Fighting for better modes of explanation is always an uphill battle.

The point is that there is no difference between saying.

It either happens or it don't.

And then

There is a 40% chance is happens.

The 40% is not based on anything of consequence to the discussion at hand.

Why use something that is completely separated from what it purports to make claims about?

This is not just unscientific it's an anti-scientific approach.

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