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0 pointskgwgk3y ago0 comments

I’m pretty sure you can as well!

If you can pick Brazil or Morocco to win $1000 in case the one you choose wins the World Cup which one do you pick? Why?

Are you really indifferent between them because you cannot conceive how saying that one is more likely to win than the other could have any relationship to reality?

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ThomPete3y ago· 2 in thread

Again if i cant explain who will win, I am simply guessing.

kgwgkOP3y ago

There is nothing in the mathematical definition of probability that prevents you from applying the formalism to “guessing”.

The axiomatic definition of probability is about consistency - not about explanations.

Whatever your definition of probability is it seems too restrictive.

You may have another name for the “this is more likely than that” statements and the related reasoning processes essential in science, technology and survival in the world.

Many people call that “probability” and sucessfully apply probability theory to reason about those things.

ThomPete3y ago

You are missing the point.

There is no causal connection between what i describe the probability of X to be and the probability of X.

You can say it's 50/50 I can say it's 20/80 none of that have any effect on the outcome.

I can either explain the outcome or I cant and adding probability doesn't change that.

Again we are not talking about ex. a deck of cards where there is a set number of cards. We are talking about open ended systems like reality.

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