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0 pointscriley23y ago0 comments

This is a classic example of how propaganda works. The layman's definition of recession, which has never been used officially or by policy-makers in America, is this bit about "negative GDP growth for two quarters".

But despite that not being how we've always determined recessions here, if you read the reply above, the user has literally invented a political conspiracy about their ignorance about economics. The layman's definition isn't right? It's more complicated than a one-liner on the news? No! It's a conspiracy!

This is EXACTLY how the propaganda is designed to affect them. Empower the ignorance such that layman's understanding is the only valid understanding, impugn the experts until economics is nothing more than an election year conspiracy.

For anyone interested in the truth of how recessions have been determined in the United States for the past sixty years, it's only about three paragraphs of information https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Bureau_of_Economic_Re...

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fullshark3y ago

Or maybe THIS is exactly how propaganda works, swapping between the connotations and denotations of words when it's politically convenient to. It's also clear to me if the president had an R next to his name, both sides of the "Are we in a recession?" debate would swap entirely.

nzealand3y ago

Who debated the 2020 recession?

It didn't have two quarters of real GDP growth, but it did have massive job losses.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_Unit...

fullshark3y ago

Well I just found Paul Krugman writing about the "COVID-19 Recession" here on april 30: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/opinion/economy-stock-mar...

Looked at national review, can't even find an article about the subject; https://www.google.com/search?q=recession+site:nationalrevie...

Everyone was preoccupied with other questions mostly at that time, and a lot of the debate was if policy X was too costly economically, more so than "are we in a recession?"

1 more reply

TobyTheDog1233y ago

"Accuse your enemy of that which you are guilty of"

kbelder3y ago

"Yes, exactly"

vorpalhex3y ago

Your own wikipedia link references the standard - the standard used by the media and the traders that it's two quarters of negative GDP. NBER does tend to be considered the official source.. and they tend to announce them about a year after they happen. NBER is important but "determiner of recession" is not quite their job role.

You need only to glance at the markets to see the reality of the situation we are in.

The argument the WH made for us not being in a recession is that employment is high. That situation is quickly changing.

karaterobot3y ago

Be fair: the link references the standard, but does so in order to say that that's not how the NBER defines a recession.

> The NBER uses a broader definition of a recession than commonly appears in the media. A definition of a recession commonly used in the media is two consecutive quarters of a shrinking gross domestic product (GDP). In contrast, the NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales". Business cycle dates are determined by the NBER dating committee. Typically, these dates correspond to peaks and troughs in real GDP, although not always so.

...

> Though not listed by the NBER, another factor in favor of this alternate definition is that a long term economic contraction may not always have two consecutive quarters of negative growth, as was the case in the recession following the bursting of the dot-com bubble.

deltree73y ago

At the end of the day, the definition of Recession doesn't matter.

There are ZERO changes or decision anyone can make (including policy) based on whoever's definition of recession is.

It's really weird that humans come up with these arbitrary definitions that doesn't matter but choose that hill to die on.

Thought experiment: Knowing and feeling all the economic news around you, what decision would you make if (or what decision should policy makers make)

a) we are in some arbitrary definition of Recession?

b) we are not in some arbitrary definition of Recession?

There really is none

dizzant3y ago

The link you posted supports the GP’s assertion that not declaring the current economic situation as a recession is politically motivated. The third paragraph specific cites common criticism of the NBER on that very front.

That there could and should be some more sophisticated, objective definition of a recession than “two years of GDP decline” isn’t in question. But, at least according to your own source, NBER fails to provide that definition and is commonly criticized for is subjectivity during political years.

eigen3y ago

> The link you posted supports the GP’s assertion that not declaring the current economic situation as a recession is politically motivated.

1/5 indicators shows significant decline (real GDP) I'll give you. but 1/5 is slight decline (real income 1% down), the other 3 (employment, industrial production, retail sales) are up. this is based on data available from FRED, do you have data showing otherwise?

links at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33032470#33036403

braingenious3y ago

That’s a lot of uses of “conspiracy theory”, “ignorance” and “propaganda” for the proof of your superior intellect and immunity to propaganda to be… a link to wikipedia.

Going off how much you have positioned yourself as an expert on economics and human psychology, I was expecting this to end with “Here is a link to my dissertation on this very issue!”

djmips3y ago

This isn't a PhD level argument here.

braingenious3y ago

I agree! I suppose more informed people would probably have spent more of the post talking about the topic at hand rather than throwing around insults and accusing people of spreading conspiracy theories.

It is still pretty funny to see someone spend 80% of a post describing their acumen at spotting a social phenomenon (conspiracy theories and ignorance) only to follow it up with a wiki link about something wholly unrelated to ignorance or conspiracy theories.

For example, here’s a link to how to gather information: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia

wubbert3y ago

>the NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales".

Which we have right now. But don't trust objective observations of reality. Just Trust the Experts™ and call anyone who disagrees a conspiracy theorist.

eigen3y ago

> "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months,

> real GDP

> real income

real income is down ~1% since Sept 2020 or Sept 2021 [1]. hardly seems like a "significant decline".

> employment

employment has increased since Sept 2020 or Sept 2021 [2] and infact has been steadily increasing since April 2020.

> industrial production

industrial production has increased since Sept 2020 or Sept 2021 [3] and infact has been steadily increasing since April 2020.

> wholesale-retail sales

retail sales has increased since Sept 2020 or Sept 2021 [4] and infact has been steadily increasing since April 2020.

so 1 of 5 indicators shows significant decline, 1 shows minor decline, 3 show increase.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPI

[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS

[3] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO

[4] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSXFS

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fullshark3y ago

nzealand3y ago

Who debated the 2020 recession?

It didn't have two quarters of real GDP growth, but it did have massive job losses.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_Unit...

fullshark3y ago

Well I just found Paul Krugman writing about the "COVID-19 Recession" here on april 30: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/opinion/economy-stock-mar...

Looked at national review, can't even find an article about the subject; https://www.google.com/search?q=recession+site:nationalrevie...

Everyone was preoccupied with other questions mostly at that time, and a lot of the debate was if policy X was too costly economically, more so than "are we in a recession?"

1 more reply

TobyTheDog1233y ago

"Accuse your enemy of that which you are guilty of"

kbelder3y ago

"Yes, exactly"

vorpalhex3y ago

You need only to glance at the markets to see the reality of the situation we are in.

The argument the WH made for us not being in a recession is that employment is high. That situation is quickly changing.

karaterobot3y ago

Be fair: the link references the standard, but does so in order to say that that's not how the NBER defines a recession.

...

deltree73y ago

At the end of the day, the definition of Recession doesn't matter.

There are ZERO changes or decision anyone can make (including policy) based on whoever's definition of recession is.

It's really weird that humans come up with these arbitrary definitions that doesn't matter but choose that hill to die on.

Thought experiment: Knowing and feeling all the economic news around you, what decision would you make if (or what decision should policy makers make)

a) we are in some arbitrary definition of Recession?

b) we are not in some arbitrary definition of Recession?

There really is none

dizzant3y ago

eigen3y ago

> The link you posted supports the GP’s assertion that not declaring the current economic situation as a recession is politically motivated.

links at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33032470#33036403

braingenious3y ago

That’s a lot of uses of “conspiracy theory”, “ignorance” and “propaganda” for the proof of your superior intellect and immunity to propaganda to be… a link to wikipedia.

Going off how much you have positioned yourself as an expert on economics and human psychology, I was expecting this to end with “Here is a link to my dissertation on this very issue!”

djmips3y ago

This isn't a PhD level argument here.

braingenious3y ago

For example, here’s a link to how to gather information: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia

wubbert3y ago

Which we have right now. But don't trust objective observations of reality. Just Trust the Experts™ and call anyone who disagrees a conspiracy theorist.

eigen3y ago

> "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months,

> real GDP

> real income

real income is down ~1% since Sept 2020 or Sept 2021 [1]. hardly seems like a "significant decline".

> employment

employment has increased since Sept 2020 or Sept 2021 [2] and infact has been steadily increasing since April 2020.

> industrial production

industrial production has increased since Sept 2020 or Sept 2021 [3] and infact has been steadily increasing since April 2020.

> wholesale-retail sales

retail sales has increased since Sept 2020 or Sept 2021 [4] and infact has been steadily increasing since April 2020.

so 1 of 5 indicators shows significant decline, 1 shows minor decline, 3 show increase.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPI

[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS

[3] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO

[4] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSXFS

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