So we have gone from a categorical "not cheaper" to "almost always not cheaper," except for two circumstances, no, three. Progress!
At my last company, providing SaaS for the education market, moving from a datacenter to AWS saved almost 70% year-over-year. In the datacenter, we ran machines to cover our peak load, which only happened a few times a year. In AWS, we scaled way down and auto-scaled up during those peak weeks.
Is the entire education market "exceptionally bursty?" I suppose it could be considered so. Bar exams and midterms and finals certainly don't happen every week.
I'll wait for people to tell me how AWS was the wrong solution, and how we did everything wrong before that, but the bottom line is we saved a lot of money, accelerated our development schedule by building all new functionality using the so-called "serverless" stack, and succeeded so well during the pandemic that another company acquired us... which is why it's my former company.