People clearly do not treat Russia as a rational actor, given that everyone seems to assume Russia permanently ends European dependency on its fuel by blowing up their own equipment in NATO territory is the primary actual real go-to theory to be taken seriously.
I'm not trying to dismiss your speculations about mafioso-style thinking. I mean, assuming all of that is true, you still have only that to rely on versus Who benefits directly, materially and immediately by ending European dependence on Russian oil?