I was reading vk.com and generally there was 1 post or comment against the war in Ukraine for every 10 or 20 posts pro-war.
Now the ratio is 1 post against the draft versus 1 post pro-draft.
You see the change? Russians mostly supported the war and those few people who were ready to protest against the war were simply overwhelmed and suppressed by those who supported it. Some people live in bubble where they see that everybody around them thinks similarly to them but that doesn't seem to be the whole reality in Russia.
I am not convinced about the resistance against covid restrictions in Russia. Russia had its own share of lockdowns and restrictions. It wasn't as free as Sweden. It avoided some most stupid ones like vaccine mandates. But the UK also didn't have vaccine mandates. Was it due to people actively resisting? Possibly, but I don't think you had something so active as Canadian convoy in February 2022. It can rather be explained that the authorities were not really very eager to introduce those measures in the first place. When they encountered even lukewarm resistance, they gave up because vaccine mandates were not effective at all.
Look, Russia had abysmal vaccination rates among elderly (the only measure that really mattered). That shows the failure of public health institutions. The UK (no mandates) and Canada (strong mandates) both had very good vaccine coverage among elderly – which shows that regardless of mandates, it is possible to ensure high vaccination uptake among risk groups. Russia doesn't have that and mandates wouldn't have helped anyway. No wonder authorities gave up so quickly even with a moderate resistance to those measures.
In a climate where protesting against the war can get you beaten up, arrested, and sent to jail for 20 years, I wonder why the numbers are like that... I wonder.
This all indicates that the support for the war is immense.
And what changed now that many of the same people now are against the draft? I didn't notice it among my contacts, they mostly stopped writing or said something that every bad thing passes, even mobilization will come to an end but there are some examples where some people very actively changed their opinion with the start of mobilization.
Russia didnt have anti vax protest because they didnt have mandates. They didnt have mandates because their own vaccine was kind of shit and ineffective just like Chinese one.
Because if you look at this objectively all covid vaccines are shit. Vaccines that didn't stop infection after 3-4 months are shit. The effectiveness against severe disease and death was still maybe 80-90% which is so-so but still doesn't deserve mandates.
And while Russia didn't have vaccine mandates, China appears to have very strong restrictions. Their problem is that many elderly are not getting vaccines despite mandates. The strength of mandates does not seem correlated with vaccine effectiveness at all. Many East European countries also had poor vaccine uptake among elderly despite using mRNA vaccines and having vaccine mandates.
Posting anti-war, and therefore anti-government / anti-state sentiment on a platform essentially monitored and run by an authoritarian regime seems like the least likely form of protest you will see, as firstly it's most likely to be censored, secondly it's the easiest way to oust yourself to the authorities, and thirdly even if posted securely will be simply seen to be a weak protest/bot.
My wife is Russian and quite a lot of my friends and obviously relatives are Russian. All are against the war (that I know of), and were so before mobilisation.
It's true to say mobilisation has made people more concerned, but hardly fair to claim that people supported the war before. Of those who aren't anti-war, I'd take a guess that most fall into a neutral camp where they're trying to continue living their life as normally as possible knowing that realistically there isn't much they can do to stop the war that won't involve destroying the rest of their life with no impact on Putin's regime.
The consequences of opposing the war have always been abysmal in Russia. Anti-war sentiment online or in person can come with a 15 year prison sentence. Rape and assault are incredibly common in Russian prisons and the likelihood of returning to normal life is very slim as many Russian firms don't touch ex-convicts.
Quite often people quote a Levada Center poll suggesting 70% of Russians support the war/government position, but usually omits how many refused to answer the poll. These pollsters call you and ask if you'd like to answer questions about Putin / government / war, at which point most people hang up because in the moment they don't know if the Levada Center is independent/government controlled. The very few polls that are concluded will mostly lean to people that support (or outwardly pretend to support) the government, which is hardly a fair metric for judging opinion. The alleged 30% who went through with the poll and answered negatively about the government are braver than I'd ever be. I'd hang up.
The only real way to gauge Russian opinion is to befriend and converse with them behind a closed door. I know it's anecdotal again, but in my many travels to Russia, most people express anti-government views behind closed doors, and this most likely extends to the war.
I think in the West we're too quick to demand people in more repressed states do more to protest. A common statement I've heard the past few months (especially in relation to my wife, family and friends) is why they don't protest, why they don't overthrow Putin's regime. The consequences of doing any of that are so much higher, and if the positions were swapped I can hardly see Western citizens doing what they demand the Russians do.
I am sure there are a lot of people who simply keep silent because it is dangerous to speak out against the war but there is also a sizable and very active majority who support the war.
We need a new peace movement, not one that is tied to progressive sensitivities.
There might be protests if Westerners were putting their lives on the line here, but they aren't. I'm told there are some protests in Germany about the very real hardship of losing Russian gas, but I think they see Russian aggression at fault and most would rather work around it.
Which is to say: most westerners see their governments doing more or less the right thing, and aren't protesting. They see it as highly unlikely that they've been so misled about the situation in Ukraine as to think that it should surrender to Russia.
Pacifists have always had to contend with rhetoric about "just wars", and this is one of the clearest examples they've seen in decades. They've certainly protested against many unjust Western wars -- usually not terribly effectively, but they did come out. And I think they would if they felt it was relevant now.
No amount of exposure to Russia's mass media is likely to change their minds about that. Such as today, with Russian media announcing a 99+% result in a "referendum". They can't even begin to imagine that this will inspire protests from Western pacifists.
In Germany, people are rebelling against the usa. They believe Joe Biden had nordstream destroyed
