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0 pointspavlov3y ago0 comments

> "It's not a made up number any more than a stock's market cap."

This is a common crypto talking point but it makes no sense.

Companies are regularly acquired at a premium to their market cap, often in cash. For instance, Elon Musk signed an agreement to pay $44 billion to take Twitter private. Assuming the deal goes through, every single shareholder of Twitter is going to receive cash in exchange for their shares.

There's no such process for cryptocurrencies. It wouldn't make any sense for someone to acquire every instance of a coin. Coins don't pay dividends. They don't represent any kind of underlying assets. It's just weird to pretend that they have a market cap in the same sense as stocks.

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noch3y ago

> Coins don't pay dividends. They don't represent any kind of underlying assets.

Every honest crypto market participant has long admitted that no one currently knows a good model for valuing crypto tokens. Indeed this is widely accepted. As a result, there is such a massive speculative premium placed on them and their prices are extremely volatile.

However, Ethereum will now pay a yield native to the protocol and so discounted [cashflows][1] apply in "Eth" terms. To try to value that ["internet dividend"][0] in USD is, however, still speculation and so ultimately reliant on global [liquidity][2] conditions (how much banks "print").

[0]: https://link.medium.com/HGOCQMUbltb The Web 3.0 Yield Curve

[1]: https://ethereumcashflow.com (pdf)

[2]: https://twitter.com/42macro/status/1550487881956802563

meowkit3y ago

> There's no such process for cryptocurrencies. It wouldn't make any sense for someone to acquire every instance of a coin. Coins don't pay dividends. They don't represent any kind of underlying assets. It's just weird to pretend that they have a market cap in the same sense as stocks.

Feel free to come back to these comments in 10-20 years, but one of the moonshot goals is to make blockchain networks base layers for all financial processes in the world and implement all the things you want from any asset class as applications on top of a globally distributed virtual computer.

Additionally, the same arguments can be made of any fiat currency. The US dollar doesn't represent anything except >faith in a system<. The relative value of any blockchain is the >faith in it as a system<.

pavlovOP3y ago

> "the same arguments can be made of any fiat currency"

That's just moving the goalposts because we were talking about market cap of stocks specifically.

I'm happy to check back in 10-20 years. I made an Ethereum wallet in 2017 and still haven't used it for anything meaningful. Anecdotally, the same seems to apply to everyone I know. I honestly don't think that will have changed by 2032. I don't think my stock portfolio will be on Ethereum then.

archiemckenzie3y ago

Not necessarily — commodities like gold have similar properties and they are also generally given a market cap.

Zanfa3y ago

However commodities also have inherent utility that cryptocurrency doesn’t.

DennisP3y ago

Ethereum has actual users who pay to run applications built on top of it.

chrisco2553y ago

Pretty bad example because Elon Musk is currently in court to back out of the deal or get the price reduced.

Companies are also regularly liquidated for next to nothing or go bankrupt and disappear altogether (ie Enron, Lehman, et al).

There is no such process for cryptos because they are decentralized and no one owns 100% of the supply or has the authority to authorize a takeover. They are more akin to commodities in that sense. Could you buy all the world's lumber supply? Of course not, not even if you were Musk.

Ethereum has been a yield producing asset since Beacon chain went live in December of 2020.

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