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0 pointsicelancer3y ago0 comments

Only by K factor; those calculations don't hold at the highest levels, the distribution is skewed. Magnus also rarely loses with the white pieces in classical; his last loss was in 2018 at Biel vs. a much better player than Hans.

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8 comments · 2 top-level

systemvoltage3y ago· 4 in thread

Not correct, the current rating doesn't reflect growing player's strength. It takes time for them to accrue rating. Alireza used to be beat players 200 points higher as he was climbing through the ladders. Hans just topped 2700.

There is also the reverse side of the coin that top players peak at a rating and then decline as they age. Not saying Magnus is, but it is not a possibility that can be ruled out.

peter4223y ago

Magnus has played tons and tons of chess games this year and has maintained his rating. There is no doubt his rating is very accurate unless you think his skill started to deteriorate in the last month.

systemvoltage3y ago

What if Hans is actually rated higher than his current rating, seems quite plausible, no? ELO has pros and cons; it is not some law of nature: https://en.chessbase.com/post/what-s-wrong-with-the-elo-syst...

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squidbeak3y ago

Alireza was able to speak accurately and in depth in his post game interviews along the way. Niemann doesn't seem able to do this.

systemvoltage3y ago

What are you talking about? He talked for 17 mins and according to GothamChess and PowerPlayChess, it was one of the best chess interviews ever.

Here it is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCeJrItfQqw

I don't get it. HN seems to be always on the skeptical side when accusing anyone, here we're seeing people pile up on Hans without any evidence whatsoever.

The fact of the matter is, no one knows why Magnus quit.

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avip3y ago· 2 in thread

You're right, it's ~1/25. So still should happen.

sharedfrog3y ago

For sure. On its own, it's no more than a raised eyebrow. The next few days will show if there's any solid evidence.

Btw. the 24% chance of "winning" against a 200 Elo higher rated opponent refers to "winning a point" - it includes draws as well.

texasbigdata3y ago

Rookie question but don’t draws occur more than 20-25% of the time at this level? Or is that just a unique feature of chess versus say StarCraft.

Restated, are sports specific ELO scores real? Alternatively phrased, does an X ELO score in one competitive endeavor represent the same relative strength as the same ELO in another subject?

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8 comments · 2 top-level

systemvoltage3y ago· 4 in thread

There is also the reverse side of the coin that top players peak at a rating and then decline as they age. Not saying Magnus is, but it is not a possibility that can be ruled out.

peter4223y ago

systemvoltage3y ago

1 more reply

squidbeak3y ago

Alireza was able to speak accurately and in depth in his post game interviews along the way. Niemann doesn't seem able to do this.

systemvoltage3y ago

What are you talking about? He talked for 17 mins and according to GothamChess and PowerPlayChess, it was one of the best chess interviews ever.

Here it is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCeJrItfQqw

I don't get it. HN seems to be always on the skeptical side when accusing anyone, here we're seeing people pile up on Hans without any evidence whatsoever.

The fact of the matter is, no one knows why Magnus quit.

3 more replies

avip3y ago· 2 in thread

You're right, it's ~1/25. So still should happen.

sharedfrog3y ago

For sure. On its own, it's no more than a raised eyebrow. The next few days will show if there's any solid evidence.

Btw. the 24% chance of "winning" against a 200 Elo higher rated opponent refers to "winning a point" - it includes draws as well.

texasbigdata3y ago

Rookie question but don’t draws occur more than 20-25% of the time at this level? Or is that just a unique feature of chess versus say StarCraft.

Restated, are sports specific ELO scores real? Alternatively phrased, does an X ELO score in one competitive endeavor represent the same relative strength as the same ELO in another subject?

2 more replies

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