We now see how western powers are forcing Ukraine to do devastating counter offensives that will lead to quicker defeat. And even then I think Russia will take its time.
We’re approaching a 10 year long business cycle where cheap energy is everything, and Russian’s know that. There is no way out without huge money printing to replace Russian energy, all the while we finished biggest money printing cycle in our lifetimes.
Russia waited since 2014 and chose a best time. Europe will fold sooner or later.