I agree that China can't project military force far outside China. But they don't have to, a large portion of the world's population and manufacturing capacity is in their neighborhood. If they take over Taiwan, occupy Vietnam and get countries like Laos and Thailand which have good relations with China on their side, then other countries might join against China to protect their interests and supply lines.

Meanwhile the US has failed to roflstomp much smaller and weaker countries that didn't prepare for this exact scenario. China can't take the war to the US, but they can defend their costal waters and core territory longer than the US can maintain popular support for a war.

China has done an awesome job in building a military that can win a war for Taiwan. They have a very strong integrated air defense system, enough short range missiles to effectively deny the South China Sea to surface vessels and enough long range missiles to crater all of the nearby airfields the US would use in any such conflict. It's not clear they could successfully invade, but can they sink any ship bringing food into Taiwan? Probably, and realistically that's all they need to do to win.

On the flip side, what can the US do to get China to stop fighting if they don't want to give up? An invasion couldn't possibly take over the whole country and might trigger a nuclear reprisal, a blockade would take longer to work against China than Taiwan, and the economic consequences would hit the US quite hard. How many Americans want to buy war bonds and go on rationing to protect Taiwan? Especially with the current political polarization?

I don't think it's a sure fire win for China, but it's already in the realm of plausibility.

> I don’t think it would be ww3 as China would get roflstomped by US and Japan.

Yes, a country with nukes would get "rolfstomped". I expect this opinion from a hacker news commentator.

Provoked by an old lady flying in and giving a few speeches?

That is one rather weak provocation. Compare that to the CCP launching missiles over the island of Taiwan. Who is provoking whom?

This sad orientalism: neither China nor Russia are some weird state machines that are "provoked" or "forced" to do anything, or kids that we have to constantly placate to not start crying in the middle of the mall.

Any aggression, like Russian one is only and purely a result of their own choices and they are the one to bear consequences.

How is this even remotely a provocation justifying this kind of response? It‘s a diplomatic gesture confirming the US‘s support for the decades old de-facto status quo. China‘s insistence on their power fantasy is the permanent provocation here.