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0 pointsgeorgeecollins3y ago0 comments

>> Lyft and Uber are both very near profitability

As they have been for over a decade. Just not actually GAAP profitable, except maybe a one off sale to DiDi.

>> Established markets have been profitable for a while.

So what market is Uber not established in? Are they pouring their oceans of profit from New York, Los Angeles and London into building a business in La Paz? I am sure they are trying to grow in places but they are way past the point where their profitable markets could fund growth. But they don't seem to.

I am sure there is a profitable and enduring business in Uber in some markets and at some prices. I just think they know that the economic realities of that business would not support their public stock valuation. So they work on self driving and buy postmates rather than focus on those profitable established markets.

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ceeplusplus3y ago

Uber's net GAAP loss, excluding losses from investments in DiDi and other companies, is around 300m last quarter [1] which is a ~1% loss on their gross bookings. Most of that is stock based comp. Their FCF loss was only 47m last quarter.

I know HN likes to hate on Uber and other gig apps but a 1% margin is something they can easily make up given their stated take rate on mobility and delivery is around 20%.

> So what market is Uber not established in

If you follow their earnings calls (or that of DoorDash as well), advertising is a huge growing market for these companies. My guess is they take on an airline business model: zero to slim margins on the core offerings, but huge money on advertising and ancillary sources of revenue (for airlines, this is credit card points).

[1] https://investor.uber.com/news-events/news/press-release-det...

aetherson3y ago

I think we should split the difference.

Yes, Uber is close to break-even and they aren't going to just disappear. But there's still a big gap for them to close between "breaking even" and "profitable enough to justify a $50B valuation."

There's plenty of room for a moderate view in which Uber survives as a business but their investors are extremely unhappy.

closewith3y ago

> (for airlines, this is credit card points)

In the United States, maybe, the only market where credit card points are meaningful?

etempleton3y ago

Uber invested most of their money into self driving tech and it was a dead end. If it would have worked out we would be having a very different conversation. Now I think they are essentially break even until someone figures out self driving and buys them to deploy their fleet of self driving taxis.

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