The baseline here should be zero civilian casualties though. You could just as easily say "consider a new driver who got a car, and hasn't used it yet, vs someone who has killed an innocent bystander over 50% of the several hundred drives they've been on". I'd obviously rather take the new driver since the expected outcome in driving is closer to an accident every 20 years or so.
We don't have information from more than just one country, so we don't actually have a good accepted baseline to say a "new drone-having country" is good or bad... other than the fact I feel very comfortable saying that drones simply should not be used unless there can be greater than a 99.9% chance of killing zero civilians.
