The calculation is simple, it’s what we know from his track record, that he has made numerous calculated, high risk moves over several decades and has generally prevailed in a substantial manner. It’s just in vogue right now to assume “Elon is a pompous fool,” full bore myopia. The same guy that has ramped up several massively successful companies.

I don’t have a dog in the hunt, I genuinely don’t care of the outcome, I don’t think Twitter is worth buying, I don’t care if Elon loses several billion or whatever. I just wouldn’t bet against him on something like this where he has much more information than any of us. That’s a pretty simple calculation.