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0 pointsmateo4114y ago0 comments

Let me explain this another way, since you seem to be thinking about this the way I originally thought about it.

If you wager 500 million to win 1 billion, then that be pays 2 to 1. Any 2 to 1 wager makes sense when the odds of winning is greater than 1/3.

If the odds are 50/50 or 1/2, then betting the amount to win the same amount is an EV neutral move.

You are correct that the marginal utility of money is pretty weird when you are billionaire.

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toast04y ago· 1 in thread

You're saying you'll give me $1 with a 50/50 chance I give you the dollar back or keep it?

I'm happy to meet and explore this in person ;)

As described in the OP, you're not wagering the bid, you're paying the bid. I was not expecting a return of the bid if you win. The EV changes if you get your wager back.

mateo411OP4y ago

No, I'm saying I bet $1 and I have possibility to win $1, so I end up with $2.

I see, if you frame it in terms of a bid that you don't get back, then your reasoning is correct.

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