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0 pointsmesse4y ago0 comments

> The most obvious, but least talked about filter is time.

For good reason: there's been a lot of it so far. Even at slower than light speeds, it would be possible for a sufficiently advanced civilization to send probes to ever star in the galaxy (or even colonize it) in just a few million years. So why don't we see any evidence of any prior civilization having done that? It would only take one.

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7 comments · 4 top-level

cloverich4y ago· 3 in thread

How long would they have to last though? We don't just have to both be advanced but also overlap in time. When you consider there are hundred million+ years between advanced life forms and intelligent life, and even millions of years between humans and intelligent humans, any signals of any kind may have to last for millions of years or more to be detected.

Then there's so much space, so it probably takes more than one. Perhaps a million+ more than one.

Then the final but to me most important thing, is we often assume advanced life looks like us. I personally believe it generally does -- for a bit. But if we're just a stepping stone to AI and then (perhaps) we disappear, advanced life forms like us only exist for a blip anyways. We probably don't even know what to look for. The possibilities are fascinating and humbling.

eloff4y ago

I suspect that could be part of it, that we're the biological bootloader for AI and we last just a blink in that stage on the time scale of the universe.

But then what does that AI do afterwards and why don't we see them. That doesn't really solve the dilemma.

cloverich4y ago

That is true although I suspect it might be like an ant and us -- the ant certainly interacts with us but does it, can it, know anything about us? Maybe the output of AI is all around us and we are simply (now and forever) incapable of "seeing" it. My other hunch is that communication at that level isn't actually required in the traditional sense, and anything that would need to be communicable is done so via truth seeking.

whimsicalism4y ago

It wouldn't have to be a signal, it could be physical artifacts.

throwawaycities4y ago

> …it would be possible for a sufficiently advanced civilization to send probes to ever star in the galaxy (or even colonize it) in just a few million years.

It’s “possible”, highlighted by the fact that we haven’t sent a single probe to another star system. We have a grand total of 2 probes that have made it outside our solar system, and only 3 more on the way.

There are an estimated hundred thousand million stars in the Milky Way. At a rounded cost of $1B for the Voyager missions, “possible” starts to meet reality.

There are far to many assumptions. Not only does a technological civilization exist, but it had a few million years head start on us and used their time/technology to colonize every star system in the galaxy with physical probes, when so long as we are making assumptions and can assume they have/had the ability to collect all the same data/information locally at the speed of light.

pjmlp4y ago

Cough, Egyptian pyramids, jump doors with runes,... :)

Now seriously, maybe we have and they just weren't interested.

canaus4y ago

I'm pulling information from an introductory astronomy class, but isn't the definition of what lot of time passing is, not agreed upon?

/The Five Ages of the Universe/ by Adams and Laughlin theorize that new stars won't stop forming until trillions (possibly hundreds of trillions) of years after the universe's inception. We're currently on years 14-15 billion. If their theories are true we'd be, arguably, one of the first instances of intelligent life in the universe.

Now, some astronomers theorize that the universe will end in 5 - 15 billion years, so that would change the timeline substantially.

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