> Going net withdrawal from net contribution with what is currently the largest, wealthiest economic segment in the United States is not likely to increase the size of money seeking to invest

From anecdotal observation, VC and PE investors are at a point in their financial life where their earned income is much smaller than their investment income, so I'm not sure this distinction is as relevant for that class.

Perhaps a thinning of multiples in the wider market from the 9-5ers withdrawing their 401k investments will pull money out of riskier investments. But it's unclear that your average VC LP has ever acted rationally (since median returns more or less match the public stock market, but with a decade lock-up).

I think the more interesting inflection point will be in another decade or so when the baby boom generation approaches peak die-off. How much of that money will go to wannabe tycoons a la MBS? How much will go to non-profit endowment funds? IMO there's a reasonable argument we'll get right back to another dumb-money peak like the one we just exited.