The posterior probability, given that you've already found a very rare piece of space debris, would have been high.
https://xkcd.com/795/
(By the way, there's an documented instance [0] mentioned in the sibling comments. The hazard is much worse than you'd think: the space reactor didn't simply fall in one piece, but left a trail of fragments 600 km long, some of which were lethally radioactive. It's pretty lucky this one happened in an uninhabited wasteland).
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosmos_954