The suggestion that 'the return will take longer than it has in the past' is a prediction with no evidential basis.
Lack of flexibility at precisely the right time?
Owning in any large city + servicing debt during the pandemic when you must move elsewhwre that is sane (and less risky to your health) would seem to have a premium attached to it
If you somehow bought a house at a reasonable earnings multiple, say 4x earnings, then your house has appreciated essentially what you earned over the last 5 years. This is just math.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/property-prices/london/ shows the median as having gone up around 6% in total since 2017. Trying a mix of neighbourhoods in that tool, I can't see any which are close to 100% up.
We looked at a home that sold for £415K in 2017 for example and we were outbid. It went for 865K
Flats aren't so hot, that's for sure, but there's been masses of price growth over the last 5 years on houses. There's a stunning lack of stock on the market.
The situation is so bad that there isn't even housing stock available. You are generally better off moving out or buying whatever you can.
[0] https://www.savills.co.uk/research_articles/229130/323909-0
12 Years underwater... optimistically given that its already not looking great for their 8% prediction for 2022
