My baseline assumption looking at this is that in all of these numbers, there are massive systematic, global - and hence exogenous to France or any single state - forces at play (like globalization, the Financial crisis and the following decade of inflationary money printing) which shape most of these indicators.
Showing election dates of French presidents looks like a classic and rather obvious case of correlation does not imply causation.
Might well be that I don't have the full picture though and I was not following French campaigns. Is there a public debate/ general public opinion in France that presidents had significant influence on these indicators shown?
What motivated me is the simple fact that during this presidential campaign we would have one candidate saying that his presidential balance has been "very good", and on the other side all the opponents have been constantly stating that it has been a "disaster". During these last months, I have been unable to find a "neutral" and global way of see the impact Macron has had during the last 5 years. I therefore wanted to build this website in order to have a dashboard showing national statistics on key topics.
> Showing election dates of French presidents looks like a classic and rather obvious case of correlation does not imply causation.
I wanted to show the presidential election dates precisely to showcase this: It really almost doesn't matter which president France has. I believe that the macroeconomic variations follow World/European variations. And unfortunately, I feel that too many people believe that the presidents are "destroying" or "saving" the country.
> Might well be that I don't have the full picture though and I was not following French campaigns. Is there a public debate/ general public opinion in France that presidents had significant influence on these indicators shown?
I guess that there has probably been debates and studies about this, but from my experience I can say that presidents cannot influence too much the trends that the country is following.
I guess we could say this is an accomplishment to manage to stick to european averages, one president could pull and Erdogan, move back to the Franc and explode the inflation or someth :D
Just as an example: in Germany there is now a SPD led government, with the Greens and the FDP, after a long time of CDU led government. Many people voted to see some real changes, e.g. when it comes to environmental policies or social topics like wealth gaps, low minimum wage, ... If after 4 years of an SPD led government, the people don't see and feel any real change, the only thing they can do is move to more extremist parties.
There is also some weird mental gymnastics going on when it comes to the power of the state. During the election campaigns, all candidates promise big changes. Once elected, they will tell you that they don't have the power to actually do it, and claim some outside forces are stopping them. People also at the same time expect politicians to be able to mage big changes, but don't actually believe that it is possible. The only big changes I can remember that were actually made were mostly negative.
I just had a conversation with a French friend whose opinion on the election and the design of the institutions closely matches what you're describing.
I'm a little ashamed to say that albeit having learned French quite a long time in school and considering myself to be interested in the affairs of your country as a German neighbour I had hardly a notion of how polar your presedential election process and the public discours around it and related policies by candidates seems to be set up.
Thanks again for building this!
I voted Macron because he was the only one suggesting maybe the French people are the root cause rather than the political color of the president, but I understand this guy did it that way: everyone will make the president own these indicators and judge him accordingly, and of course be permanently disappointed and vote more and more radical. If you look at the landscape this election it's 30% "fuck it all it's the foreigners" LePen, 30% "fuck it all it's the 1%" Melenchon and 30% "fucking hell dudes, we dont know what it could be but the 2 others are scary so let's just stick to the evil we know" Macron.
I've never heard someone clearly stating without being shunned immediately "guys, the problem, I think I know, it's simply... all of us" :D And yes even external factors will be blamed on the president, especially if he proposes to adapt to it: why would we proud light of the world adapt to american or chinese competition, we can simply do nothing at all while posturing on the streets we re fighting for our "social acquisitions" as we call our rigid policies.
Boy oh boy, French have it good. They have no idea. Maybe they do have it good because they keep asking for more.
I don’t even find the country specifically dis functional ( compared to the US )
But that just my own personal data point. Also, I live in the buttcrack of the US, maybe it’s not fair. ( and I love that said buttcrack :) ! )
It's disfunctional if you live in it and pay taxes. For me we waste our taxes if we cant make a balanced budget, it s not even a crazy philosophy: we live beyond our means and borrow from others to calm down the electorate, we re cheating. In Hong Kong my taxes go to a surplus, you wont hear me criticise the gov much, because at least they got their basics right. I pay my 12k USD yearly with a proud smile that I contribute to building something that s coherent if not perfectly democratic. While I paid my 2k euros in France grumbling it s all going to waste anyway. You can also guess the salary increase you have working in a place where unemployment is a meaningless concept, because no welfare.
I dislike the US as much as the next guy and do not see it as a proper model. Let s not even talk of tax surplus there. Germany sounds like they try to do politics the right way but it s not like I know it all that much beyond their results.
But yes, def positive, def happy from abroad, and def coming back when Macron-like consensus is at 60% rather than 30, anything less means it's going to come back.
As for the root cause I think it's because we misunderstand what we are: a small country dependent on Germany's benevolence to continue with our post war marshall plan attitude. We must produce, we must invent, we must adapt, we must sacrifice. But instead we whine, we fight on the street and we vote for populist comfort that we're still the great napoleonic empire, light of the Universe, that s the issue. And yes, I know im whining here too :D Also note at least 70% of french people disagree with me, so, grain of salt...
It would be interesting to build an inflation calculator for France.
Example of a website on inflation: inflationchart. com
I am also working on the climate impact of the french population :)