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0 pointsbumby4y ago0 comments

Thanks for taking the time to help me understand the data.

Looking at the graphs, isn't the implication that the distance between the two lines is the metric of interest? In other words, that the distance between real/perceived scores in Q1 & Q2 is "grossly" wider than the distance between Q3 & Q4, with the noted exception that only Q4 underestimates?

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pdonis4y ago· 3 in thread

> isn't the implication that the distance between the two lines is the metric of interest?

That's more or less what D-K are saying, yes. That doesn't necessarily mean it's the best metric to use for understanding what the data is saying.

Also, "distance between the two lines" is misleading because the data is bucketed--on the x axis by quartiles, on the y axis by percentiles. In other words, the actual data is the circles/triangles/squares, not the lines. When put that way, "distance between the lines" looks a lot less like an actual metric and a lot more like an artificial one.

saurik4y ago

You seem to be first correcting the statement made by D-K in a way so compatible with this article that it is literally their example and then claiming that this corrected statement is correct so the article is wrong... the actual statement--as you even admit--was wrong, and that their data was fine was not being questioned by the article: it was their interpretation, which is what the D-K effect actually is... an inverse correlation between skill and perceived skill. Yes: if you choose to read their graph in a way which D-K didn't consider you can see the correct statement, but D-K didn't do that, and that isn't what anyone--but I guess you--means when they reference the conclusions of the paper and the resulting "effect", which purports to explain "why people tend to hold overly optimistic and miscalibrated views about themselves".

pdonis4y ago

> it is literally their example

No, it isn't. The article is claiming that the D-K effect doesn't actually exist; actually all that is going on is "autocorrelation". That claim is wrong. The D-K effect does exist, but it isn't what D-K said it was: it's not that there is an inverse correlation between perceived skill and actual skill; it is that there is no correlation (or at best a weak positive correlation) between perceived skill and actual skill (when we would intuitively expect a fairly strong positive correlation between them). That is what D-K's actual data shows; but neither D-K themselves in their paper, nor this article, correctly describe that.

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bumbyOP4y ago

Right, bad wording on my part. Thanks for correcting.

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